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Facebook Facing the Same Challenge As Every Media Owner: Editorial Integrity vs Advertising Revenue

Facebook Facing the Same Challenge As Every Media Owner: Editorial Integrity vs Advertising Revenue

So Facebook’s results are out and they are largely positive — at least as positive as the previous quarter’s. Which just goes to show fickle the stockmarket can be: last quarter Facebook’s shares took a hammering, whereas this time around they’re up 13%.

Personally I’m more interested in the business than the vagaries of the stock market, and particularly in the challenge that Facebook is now facing. Because it appears to me that this very modern business is facing a very old challenge.

Newspapers and magazines can very rarely survive on the cover price alone. So they take in advertising. This advertising sometimes comes in very innocuous forms that can be of great value to the consumer: for example, small ads. Or it can be rather more insidious: poorly flagged ‘advertorials’ for example, adverts masquerading as independent editorial content.

At worst, the wall between editorial independence and advertising revenue can be demolished altogether and when that happens, the ‘news’ is defined by whoever pays the most money.

Now take a look at Facebook. It may be we who generate the editorial content, rather than a team of journalists, but its business is not that different to that of a newspaper or magazine. More than 80% of its revenue comes from advertising. And as it tries to grow that revenue, it is going to be pushing the boundaries of our editorial independence.

Take for example, Promoted Posts: the ability for advertisers to bump up the visibility of their posts to those who have liked their page — and their friends. This is an explicit manipulation of the feeds we receive from our friends, confusing what might be important/valuable to us, with what someone else wants to be important.

Likewise with mobile: with limited screen real estate, how is Facebook going to insert ads without squeezing them into the streams that we really want to read?

These are my concerns for Facebook, because I think many users are already reaching the limit of their tolerance with the platform. Privacy breaches and unwelcome redesigns have already tested people’s commitment. And in the last couple of years we’ve seen growth rates slow and even temporarily reverse in some territories around the world.

As ever I’m not saying Facebook is going to fail tomorrow. Or that I don’t like the platform: I am one of the billion active users. But I think it has a serious challenge on its hands to sustain its position in the market, and I don’t fancy its chances in the long term.

We’re just not that tied to Facebook. The more it infringes on our editorial control, the more we will move away.

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Future language: precision matters

Life is (sadly) not like an Aaron Sorkin script. Whatever we may like to think about our own linguistic abilities, not many can spar with the wit and speed of his characters. Maybe Stephen Fry. But not most of us. We always think of the perfect retort three hours later.

Perhaps in the future we will be more Sorkin-esque. We certainly might wish we were. Because two things are happening that will raise the value of efficient, effective verbal communication.

Speaking machines

Firstly, our interface with machines is increasingly going to be based on natural language. We will talk and the machines will listen. And vice versa. The greater the speed, accuracy and range of our verbal communication, the higher the bandwidth of our interface to the machine.

This could take us in a number of directions. Witness the rise of txtspeak, a rich and highly efficient form of communication, even if it offends the eyes of the preceding generations. Or look at the syntax of really powerful web search terms, a mixture of human language and computer code. Constructing them well requires great skill.

I like to think that the depth of our long-evolved languages will prove superior to these hybrids, but future language will doubtless evolve in response to the new needs, as it always has.

The end of low-value interactions

The second thing that’s happening is that our low-value interactions are disappearing. For people like me who hate, and I mean HATE, administration, this is a huge bonus. Less and less will we need to fill out forms, interact with call centres, deal with post, or scan receipts. Because we will either allow institutions sufficient access to our personal data to let them find the answer. or we will have an AI assistant who handles these things for us.

There are serious issues with both these steps, around privacy, security and employment. How much do we want institutions to know about us — particularly states? How much are we willing to trade or risk in order to eliminate many of life’s major irritations? How many jobs will be lost as a result of the falling friction in our interactions — friction previously smoothed by human intervention?

Personally? I am concerned about just how much I might let go in order to never have to fill out a form again. For all my principles, I would give a lot for that.

Future language

As low value interactions diminish so the the importance of being skilled in high value interactions will grow, whether they are with machines or people. The better we can express ourselves, the higher the bandwidth of those interactions. I’m not saying every conversation is going to be like a Sorkin-script. But we might all start to place more emphasis on the quality of our repartee.

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Future superhumans: from microchips to microdoses

What would you do to augment yourself? Over the last 24 hours I’ve found myself discussing three very different approaches to making us future superhumans.

Conscious Control

First, I met Simon Fox of BfB Labs, a London-based start-up building ‘emotionally responsive games’. The company’s first game, Champions of the Shengha, will be launched on 27th September 2016 on Indiegogo. It uses a Bluetooth connected heart-rate monitor to bring a different dimension to a classic style: the trading card/duel, in the style of Yu-Gi-Oh. By following instructions to control your breathing, and so moderate your heart rate, you can enhance your power-ups.

Adding this sort of gamification to what is fundamentally a meditatory technique for managing your mind state is really interesting. Imagine a whole generation of kids who grow up associating calmness and with power. Kids who have a well-trained ability to consciously control their body’s natural responses to stress and anxiety.

This is just the company’s first game. You can imagine how many of the most beneficial components of ancient techniques of self-control could be brought bang up to date in a game environment.

Basic Bionics

The second stimulus for this blog post was a conversation with Danny Kelly on BBC WM about the latest people to insert RFID chips into their hands and call themselves transhuman. This isn’t anything new: people have been attracting publicity through this approach for a few years now. Every time it seems to startle a few people, even though the technology is pretty rudimentary — no different to tagging a pet.

It does open up some interesting possibilities, even if it is very much a technology for today. In the future machines will be able to recognise us from our faces or our heart beat signature. No need for internal electronics.

Meanwhile though, opening doors at work with a wave of your hand is one thing. Being able to pay for a pint as if by magic is quite another.

I can see how that would appeal to future superhumans with a taste for beer.

Microdosing

The third spur was a brilliant piece by Wired’s Olivia Solon on ‘microdosing’ of psychoactive substances as a means of improving at work performance. Tiny amounts of LSD or psilocybin (magic mushrooms) are taken every few days to maintain a low-level boost to focus and mood.

As Solon notes, this is not a new phenomenon, but it is one with a growing number of adherents. I don’t mind admitting that if I were both younger and braver, I might give it a go. But having watched a few people on bad trips in the 90s, illicit pills and powders have always terrified me.

Future Superhumans: Train, Augment, Enhance

These three ideas present three glimpses of ways that we might make all of us into future superhumans. Mind and body training so subtly integrated into games that we just don’t notice the improvements we’re making in our own capabilities. Electronic devices inserted subcutaneously to give us access to systems and services. And drugs to extract the maximum potential from our own minds.

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Get used to being wrong

 

We’re not good at being wrong. We chastise politicians for U-turns. We punish business leaders for changing strategies. As individuals we would rather cherry pick facts from the declining pool that support our position, than accept the burden of evidence that tells us we’re wrong.

None of this is helpful. In fact, it’s downright dangerous. Because we’re all going to be wrong a lot. That’s just the nature of things now.

Positions, traditions, ideas and beliefs, whether scientific, religious, cultural, or ideological are all subject to increasing challenge. Many are not equal to the test. The way it has always been is not the way it will always be.

It was ever thus. But our burden is the accelerated pace of change. We will be more wrong, more often than our parents.

We will have to deal with it. That doesn’t mean blindly accepting the new over the old. Every new idea deserves robust challenge. But those that pass the test? We need to learn to be better at accepting.

Most importantly, we need to teach our children to accept new ideas. To recognise when they are wrong and to adapt their position with grace.

Of course, there are some things that don’t change. Fundamental principles that go beyond law, beyond religion, beyond creed. Principles that are more important now than ever. When so much is changing we need a strong moral core.

Wheaton’s law expresses them most concisely. Every important principle in one simple statement. When so much is changing. When you don’t know right from wrong, left from right, up from down, remember this one simple rule:

Don’t be a dick.

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What is the future of creativity?

At various points in history people seem to have decided that there’s nothing left to be invented. That we have exhausted the possibilities for music, art, and science. Inevitably they are proved wrong. Today we’re more aware of what we don’t know than ever before. It’s clear that we are only beginning our journey of discovery as a species.

Creativity is often misunderstood. It is overly associated with the arts, and art in particular. Those who didn’t take to art or creative writing at school may not consider themselves creative. But creativity is problem solving. It is often not about originality but transposition and iteration, bringing ideas from one place and applying them in a different context then refining them over a period until they fulfil a need. The arts are a great place to learn these skills, but they are not their only outlet.

Creativity and future of work

Creativity is one of those words that gets bandied about meaninglessly like ‘innovation’ and ‘disruption’. But what about creativity and the future of work? If you can’t choose a career, maybe you need to invent your future job?

“What do you want to be when you grow up?” It’s such a singular question in an age when our careers so rarely include just one line of work, sometimes including many in parallel. And when it’s not entirely clear at what point in our lives we count as having ‘grown up’.

Now seems a good time to share the tools I use for mentorship sessions.

Future Job: Opportunity Matrix

The first of these is about capturing the different avenues available to someone. This may sound like an unusual position, but we are in a world of growing self-employment and rising diversity in types and styles of work. Dell and the Institute for the Future suggested back in 2017 that 85% of jobs that will exist in 2030, don’t yet exist today. This says nothing of the jobs that exist today that might not exist, or might employ many fewer people in 2030, but that’s a different story.

We are making up jobs all the time, so why shouldn’t people make up their own future job? Perhaps people come to me because I did just that. I have now been an Applied Futurist for longer than I have been anything else.

The first tool I put together for my mentees is designed to simply map the different avenues available to them and get them to put some values against each.

  • The first value is enthusiasm, or passion. Does this type of work, or working in this particular line, bring you joy? Very Marie Kondo.
  • The second value is opportunity. Can you realise a good income from pursuing this line of work? Can you win work against the competition?
  • The third value is credibility. Do you have a track record in this line or some other validation of it being your specialism?

I ask my mentees to give a score out of ten for each of these criteria to the various avenues in front of them. No single avenue of opportunity has to score highly in all three criteria: if there’s a big opportunity, it’s worth working towards credibility. But you really want it to be something you enjoy.

The results don’t give you a hard and fast answer about which direction to pursue. But I’m hoping they provide a platform for our next conversation. If you’re facing similar choices, feel free to download this template and use it to find your ideal future job.

Is technology making us less creative?

So, what is the future of creativity in the workplace? The drive for operational excellence has brought an end to the age of creativity in too many businesses. Lots of companies are focused on doing what they do better. This is a noble goal, you might think. And that’s true, as long as this pursuit doesn’t exclude an even more critical challenge: asking the question, “should we even be doing it?”

There is a new class of small but impactful and highly accelerated waves of change that will ultimately present an existential threat to every organisation. In this age, it is critical that every leader who wants to build sustainable success – who prizes stewardship over short-term wins – focuses on adaptation not optimisation. That they recognise that while wastefulness is never good, long-term success will require rapid change to fit the market, rather than endless refinements to today’s model.

In an age of high frequency change we need open minded, wide ranging, creativity applied across our organisations. A constant challenge to our processes, propositions and behaviours, and new ideas instituted, revised, and applied.

This type of creativity is a skill, one that can be learned and that must be honed. This process is an unalloyed good for individuals and has enormous benefits for our organisations. It is something that deserves our investment. We need to return to an age of creativity.

Rewarding future creativity

Creativity is often seen as being its own reward, but even artists need to eat. Too often creative talent is devalued. Jobs offered for ‘exposure’. Music and arts squeezed out of the curriculum. Yes, you can be extremely creative in science, maths and English. But that creativity is always enhanced by cross-pollination with other, explicitly creative disciplines where the creative muscles can be developed.

Google may have part of the answer. Its Content ID system may be unloved by the music industry, who claim it isn’t effective enough at identifying unlicensed use of their properties. But if Google is to be believed it identifies 99.7% of copies of tunes in its database. Content ID automatically notifies copyright owners, allowing them to monetise user-generated content that infringes their rights.

Imagine a system like this that allows individuals to protect their rights to creative works of all types around the world. The complexities of global copyright may make it hard to enforce legally. But much more shaming of the type that Inditex is experiencing now may convince large retail brands to sign up. And it would provide a simple source of discovery and a single source of evidence for those who have been infringed. Even if the person doing the infringing is another small business or sole practitioner — as has happened to a well-known illustrator friend — this would be a way to monitor that and at least socially enforce some sort of control.

Would this be a good thing? It would undoubtedly be abused. By large corporates (as happened in this case) and spiteful individuals.

Either way, I think we’ll see something like this before too long.

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Measuring business metrics that matter

Every day’s a school day. It’s no different if you’re the ‘expert’ in the room.

I recently ran a workshop for leaders at a large global corporation, walking them through the Intersections foresight process and introducing Stratification, our framework for agile organisations.

We’re quite upfront that neither of these processes are a ‘magic bullet’ solution. They are simply different ways of examining, and potentially solving, a common problem: How do you build a sustainably successful business in an accelerated age?

How to find metrics that matter to your business

One component of the Stratification framework is a Unit Template, designed to help people understand the inputs, outputs, and key metrics of each business function. I built it as an attempt to segment out the functions of an organisation in a format that could be simply understood as a set of building blocks that — when assembled together — create value.

What I had never had to articulate – before a series of smart questions at the workshop – was where this set of functional metrics sat in the overall corporate hierarchy ,  a space often rich with different objectives and KPIs (key performance indicators).

This is in part the result of how our toolkit is developed: not through academic enquiry but through experience.

In two consecutive consulting projects it was clear that the leadership didn’t yet have a clear definition of the business metrics that matter. While the sales team can be measured by revenue, how do you measure procurement, finance or HR? Even marketing can be tricky: how do you measure business success across departments?

How do you measure business success?

We decided this was an important question to ask. Each of these functions contribute to the sustainable success of the organisation, but putting simple measures on their day-to-day activity to monitor performance is hard.

Sometimes people do it, and do it well.

Sometimes people create KPIs, but these measures aren’t always well thought-out or aligned to the corporate goals, let alone to each other.

For example, manufacturing might have a target for a minimum batch size, because that is what is most economic to produce. But logistics may be optimised around much smaller batches, based on what the customer wants.

Often though, people just don’t create these metrics at all. They provide individuals with a set of objectives, against which they can be measured. And they have a corporate set of KPIs to which everyone — notionally — contributes. But in the middle? There is an Objective Gap.

When all the numbers are going in the right direction, this is fine. Individuals might get pulled up for failing to hit their targets, but as long as the corporation keeps on a profitable growth track, no-one questions function-level performance.

Dealing with business inefficiencies

When things start to go bad though, problems become visible. Disconnects and inefficiencies become clear. Issues that should have been identified earlier if functions were properly targeted and measured. The objective gap widens.

Sometimes these issues are internal. Like the issue between manufacturing and logistics.

Sometimes they have an external effect, like the conflict between working capital and service benchmarks — another common issue. If a customer wants products quickly, you typically hold more stock of them to ensure they’re available on demand. But this requires more working capital, as well as storage space. Measure the right things at the right level and you can strike a balance, or perhaps identify the need for a more sophisticated solution. Measure just one, and you will operate to the detriment of the customer or the business.

Small world and big world problems

So, how can you begin to identify the business metrics that matter? You can begin by defining problems.

Small world problems

Corporation tax is what I would term a ‘small world problem’. Over the last few hundred years we have shrunk the world. Transport and communications technologies have brought us closer together. They have allowed companies to operate internationally, and migrate those operations to wherever conditions were most favourable.

Because of this, local action is pretty ineffective. Some countries have brought in ‘digital taxes’. But these have limited effect when companies can move their profits elsewhere.

The only answer is for everyone in the small world to work together.

Big world problems

Big world problems come about when power is too centralised. Because we can move information so fast now, we’re tempted to hold power a long way from where it is exercised.

Brexit is a big world problem. Not because power was unfairly hoarded in Brussels, though that was the perception. But because it was hoarded in Westminster. Many of us felt, and still feel, that we were disconnected from power. That we had little influence over it.

You can see this in the way people talk about politicians: “They’re all the same.” It’s hard to see the difference when they are so far away.

The only answer here, I believe, is to bring more power closer to people. Make its holders more visible and accountable.

Office politics

These aren’t the only examples of big and small world problems. And they don’t only exist in politics. We can find them in our own organisations.

Poor customer service is often a big world problem. Power and control are too far from the customer. The responses are slow and impersonal. As the customer, we feel disconnected from the brand.

On the other hand, slow strategic decision making is a small world problem. In a world that expects fast action, it is increasingly exposed.

Characterising big and small world problems

How can we characterise big and small world problems?

Small world problems are created or exacerbated by the mobility of people, goods, and particularly information. Their solutions require visibility of the whole and co-ordination from the centre.

Big world problems exist where the mobility of goods, people, or information are insufficient to overcome a sense of distance. Solutions require a speed of response and a sense of direct connection, usually only available through some level of proximity.

Can you see big world and small world problems in your organisation? And how will you go about solving them? It begins with measuring the business metrics that matter to you.